Stats back crime fears

Crime data reported by the Victorian Crime Statistics Agency (CSA) indicates that increased crime is not just a perception, it’s a fact.

The Victorian Crime Statistics Agency (CSA) was established by the State Government in 2015 to provide an independent analysis of data collect by police.  It publishes Statewide data and statistics focused on local government areas, including Port Phillip.

The most recent data covers the 12 months until September 2024.

Data reveals an upswing in crime, statewide and locally

As with any data, how you slice and dice the information is crucial, but the basic story is clear. Both the number of criminal incidents and the rate per 100,000 population have risen over the last decade – but not by much – but our neighbourhood shows a darker story.

The takeaway from this chart is the rapid increase from the COVID low point in 2022. We are in a post COVID crime upswing.

More crime locally ….

Source: VCSA

The data on incidence of crime makes sense of the local conversation. Incidents are up by over 11% in a year; St Kilda is a hot spot; and theft is the most common crime.

and more victims of crime

Source: VCSA

Theft, assault, break-ins and property damage are all on the increase, delivering 14% more victims of crime than the previous year.

Lies, damn lies and statistics maybe …

As Mark Twain said (quoting British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli), there are lies, damn lies and statistics. Debating statistics is a zero sum game, but dismissing concerns about crime as issue of perception is challenged by the facts. There is more crime, there is more ‘everyday’ crime and there are more people being hurt by crime.

It’s not surprising that there is a perception of more crime. The challenge is what to do about it rather than deny it.